by Frank James The Gallup Poll experts note that the structure of the Democratic and Republican presidential race look remarkably like mirror images of one another. PRINCETON, NJ — With no incumbent president or vice president running for the 2008 presidential nominations, it is perhaps not surprising that both of the major parties have competitive races, with multiple candidates jockeying for second, if not first, place. Still, the current outlines of voter preferences in the Republican and Democratic nomination battles are remarkably similar. According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll of national adults, conducted June 11-14, 2007, each race is characterized by a front-runner attracting about 30% of the potential primary vote nationwide, followed by two candidates garnering about 20% support each in a close contest for second place, and a slew of weaker candidates, each supported by no more than 11%. Continuing the parallels, the race for second place in both parties features one announced candidate who has earned fairly steady support throughout the year (mostly failing to build momentum) and one unannounced candidate with growing support, just recently pulling into a tie for second. And while Gallup doesn’t mention it, those two unannounced candidates, Republican Fred Thompson and Democrat and former Vice President Al Gore, both have ties to Tennessee while the frontrunners in either party are connected to New York. Eerie, isn’t it?

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Report: Iraq is world’s second-most unstable country
by Frank James Iraq is the second-most unstable nation in the world, right after Sudan and just before Somalia according to Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace which published their Failed State Index for 2007 in the July/August issue of the magazine. In a press release accompanying the index, Foreign Policy described the main reasons for Iraq’s placement on the list: “Despite billions of dollars in development and security aid and the continued presence of U.S. troops, Iraq s position in the Failed States Index dropped for a third consecutive year, leaving it ranked as the second most vulnerable country in the world. Its score diminished in nearly all of the index s 12 social, economic, political, and military indicators this year, suggesting a broad scope of deterioration in the country.” The index’s 12 indicators include large population movements of refugees or internally displaced people, a security apparatus that operates as a power unto itself and the steady erosion of public services. Other bad news from the report: the African continent continued to fall behind the rest of the world, with eight of the top 10 most unstable countries now found there, up from six the year before. There was some positive news too. According to the Foreign Policy article that accompanied the latest ranking: Two vulnerable giants, China and Russia, improved their scores sufficiently to move out of the 60 worst states. That is in part due to the fact that 31 additional countries were assessed this year. But some credit must be paid to the countries themselves. China s economic engine continues to propel the country forward at a breakneck pace, but the growing divide between urban and rural, as well as continued protests in the countryside, reveals pockets of frailty that the central government is only just beginning to address. Russia s growing economy and a lull in the violence in Chechnya have had stabilizing effects, despite fresh concerns about the country s democratic future.

Faith in Iowa for Obama
by John McCormick Testing out a speech that likely will be similar to one he will give next weekend in Connecticut, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama told Iowans Saturday that America’s main challenges are “moral problems.” Obama, who is a member of Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago, was the keynote speaker for about 300 delegates at the United Church of Christ state convention in Fort Dodge. He will speak June 23 to the 26th annual synod of the United Church of Christ, gathered in Hartford, Conn. Radio Iowa’s O. Kay Henderson has the story from Iowa.

Gonzales going one-on-one with prosecutors
by Andrew Zajac Atty Gen. Alberto Gonzales has survived months of controversy over the Justice Department’s dismissal of several federal prosecutors and dodged a no-confidence vote of the Senate, with members of the president’s own party making the case for his removal. Gonzales’ response? Ratchet up the department’s oversight of U.S. attorneys. “At least once a year every United States attorney is going to sit down with either myself or the deputy attorney general, and we’re going to have a very candid conversation about issues and problems in their districts,” Gonzales says. “If I’ve heard of complaints from a member of Congress, it gives me an opportunity or the deputy attorney general an opportunity to tell the U.S. attorney what we’re hearing.” Read more, from the Perspective section of today’s Tribune:

D.C. Hold ‘Em: Emanuel lays his ‘ear-marks’ on table
by Jim Tankersley Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) wants to steer more than $170 million of the 2008 federal budget to Chicago-area arts, education, health and public-safety projects - a common Capitol Hill ambition that Emanuel uncommonly disclosed today. Emanuel released his so-called earmark requests for the 2008 fiscal year this afternoon - complete with dollar signs - giving the public a rare look today into the early stages of what the old Washington hands like to call the sausage-making process. Earmarks are specific congressional directives on how federal agencies should spend money allotted them. Emanuel s list includes $140 million for a trio of metro area transit projects and a variety of smaller proposals that range from $250,000 for a science and math lab at John C. Coonley Elementary School to $4.5 million for geologic mapping of Chicago. None of the earmarks are directed to private companies.

Obama: India memos were “stupid”
by John McCormick Sen. Barack Obama said today that it was “stupid” for his presidential campaign to issue documents that raise questions about Sen. Hillary Clinton’s ties to India and Indian Americans. It was a screw-up on the part of our research team, Obama told editors and reporters with The Des Moines Register, according to the paper s Web site. It wasn’t anything I had seen or my senior staff had seen. Later in the afternoon, Obama issued a specific statement of apology to Indian supporters. Monday marked the first time Obama had spoken publicly about a flare-up last week involving Clinton, a fellow Democrat. The situation was triggered by the distribution of documents to the media — on an off-the-record basis — that offered a harsh analysis of Clinton and her former president husband. One appeared under the headline Hillary Clinton (D-Punjab) s personal financial and political ties to India.

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